Will Rise In September Retail Sales Carry into Holidays?
Retail sales rose in September for the first time in 13 months, fueling hopes that the worst is behind retailers that head into the holiday season better prepared for a tough economic environment.
Three reports were unanimous that sales gained, but to different degrees: Market research firm Retail Metrics Inc. said sales rose 1.1% last month, Thomson Reuters tallied a rise of 0.6% and a tally by International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC) and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS) showed a 0.1% increase.
“Let the retail recovery begin,” said Michael Niemira, chief economist at ICSC. “This is the start of a better performance and better fundamentals.”
Retailers such as Target Corp. (NYSE: TGT), Aeropostale (NYSE: ARO) and Kohl’s Corp. (NYSE: KSS) raised…
Why stocks look oversold
Since the Federal Reserve announced on September 23 that it would not be extending its direct purchases of mortgages and U.S. Treasuries, stocks have lost more than 4%. At the time, I wondered if the Fed had killed the bull market.
While that remains…
Is there hope for the labor market?
Friday saw the release of the latest employment situation report and boy was it a doozy. Payrolls fell by another 263,000 in September, well under the consensus estimate of a loss of 170,000. The unemployment rate inched higher to 9.8% — which now s…
The Rally Rests on a Knife-Edge
The longer the rally persists, the more dangerous it becomes.
The S&P 500 is up almost 60% since March. The Dow just had its best quarter since ’98.
Yesterday, the Dow slipped 29 points. Is the rally finally rolling over? Or is this a genuine bull market, just taking a pause?
If it is a real bull market it’s a funny-looking bull – one that is missing parts!
For example, corporate earnings are missing. P/E ratios are rising far above the corporate earnings that support them. This puts the market 35% overvalued on a cyclically-adjusted P/E basis, says Smithers & Co.
And if you look at it in terms of its “q” ratio – a comparison of capitalisation and replacement costs – the…
A Century of Bad Ideas
Not much happened yesterday. The Dow fell 47 points. The newspapers attributed the reversal to surprisingly low consumer confidence numbers. Apparently, consumers aren’t so sure this crisis is over. As we reported yesterday, they’re saving money… maybe even at an 8% rate.
Oil didn’t move yesterday. Neither did gold.
The Wall Street Journal reported that markets were reacting to “mixed data”.
That is to say, some reports were encouraging. Others were not. It was as if one weather forecaster called for a blizzard. The other for sunny skies and warm temperatures. Investors didn’t know how to dress.
Among the dark clouds was an item on the falloff in tax revenues. States are having a hard time balancing their books, because their tax receipts…
Whiplash Wednesday!
Currencies rebound VS the dollar…Aussie and kiwi lead the currencies higher…Data and Central Bank speeches today…Gold rebounds back to $1,000! And Now… Today’s Pfennig!
Good day… And a Wonderful Wednesday to you… Instead of a “turn around Tuesday”, we’re seeing a whiplash Wednesday! And for once in a month of Sundays, the Big Dog, euro didn’t lead the other little dogs (currencies) off the porch to chase the dollar down the street!
No… This time it was the currencies of Australia and New Zealand that led the charge VS the dollar… The euro has taken up the charge since opening the doors to a new day of trading in Europe, so… It looks like it’s a “take the dollar to the woodshed…
Did ‘cash for clunkers’ really work?
Retail sales surprised to the upside on Tuesday thanks to the government’s $3 billion “cash-for-clunkers” auto rebate program. Overall sales jumped 2.7% last month, which was above the consensus estimate of 2% and July’s -0.2% result. Excluding v…
Semiconductor and Electronics Makers Anticipate a Bounce in Business Spending Next Year
A longtime investment adage holds that “As goes Intel (NASDAQ:INTC), so goes the rest of the semiconductor industry.”
And as goes the semiconductor industry, so goes the U.S. economy.
These days, microchips are present in virtually every type of product – from coffee makers to cars: If it plugs into the wall or takes batteries, chances are good there’s a semiconductor inside.
Given the microchip’s ubiquitous nature, the companies that make them – as well as the companies that make the chipmaking equipment – can be viewed as a kind of leading economic indicator. Companies that intend to produce products down the road have to place orders for chips or for equipment now, meaning an uptick in semiconductor-sector business activity today and represent…
Weak Consumer Data Saps Wall St Gains
U.S. stocks gave up most of their gains on Friday after initially spiking to 10-month highs as weak consumer sentiment data offset an upbeat forecast from chipmaker Intel and better-than-expected profit from computer maker Dell.
A Reuters/University of Michigan survey showed consumer confidence fell to its lowest in four months in August on worries over high unemployment and dismal personal finances, though the mood improved from earlier this month.
The Nasdaq was buoyed after Intel Corp raised its outlook for third-quarter revenue and Dell Inc , the world’s No. 2 personal computer maker behind Hewlett-Packard Co , posted a strong quarterly performance and several brokerages raised their price target on the stock.
The PHLX semiconductor index <.SOXX> rose 2.2 percent, while Dell shot up 4 percent…
Oil Dips as Wall Street and Dollar Drag
Oil prices slipped below $72 on Friday as losses on Wall Street and gains in the U.S. dollar dragged on commodities markets.
U.S. crude for October fell 56 cents to $71.93 a barrel by 12:30 p.m. EDT (1630 GMT). London Brent fell 54 cents to $71.97 a barrel.
The losses came as a report showing U.S. consumer confidence at four-month lows pulled Wall Street stock indexes into negative territory, in turn pushing the dollar up against the euro.
Commodities markets have tended to move in tandem with equities and contrary to the greenback as investors look to stocks as a lead indicator of economic performance and buy resources as a hedge against inflation.
Oil’s losses Friday reverse much of Thursday’s $1.06-gain, made on the back of…
Gold Hits 3-wk High as Soft Dollar Supports
Gold hit a three-week high above $960 an ounce on Friday as buying linked to the weaker dollar pushed the metal through technical resistance, before paring gains after U.S. consumer sentiment data pressured the euro.
Spot gold hit a high of $961.00 an ounce, its firmest level since Aug. 7, and was bid at $955.10 an ounce at 1434 GMT, against $946.75 an ounce late in New York on Thursday.
Prices rose after heavy selling of the dollar late on Thursday, particularly against the Swiss franc, knocking the U.S. currency to multi-week lows versus the euro.
“In the near term is it still predominantly the currency that is in the driving seat,” said Saxo Bank senior manager Ole Hansen.
“That has managed to tip (gold)…
Can Consumers Lead the Market?
So what has stocks soaring now, during this great deleveraging — this credit crunch — this historic pullback in household balance sheets?
Consumer confidence, of course.
We recently vowed to stop calling our national brethren “consumers” in favor of less degrading words — like Americans, citizens or just plain-old people. Thus, we report the Conference Board printed a surprisingly optimistic gauge of American consumption attitudes (doesn’t that sound better?) yesterday. After two months of decline, the index kicked back up to 54.1, just shy of a 2009 high.
Coupled with the latest printing of the home price index, that was enough to keep this mega-bounce alive and kicking. The news shot the S&P 500 to a 1% gain within moments of yesterday’s opening…
German Business Confidence Continues to Surprise!
Currencies rally in early morning Tuesday. But see profit taking later in the day… Looking for yield? China expected to get back to 10% growth! And Now… Today’s Pfennig!
Good day… And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! When I signed off yesterday morning, I told you that I was watching a mini-rally in the currencies. Well, that mini-rally turned into a real rally as the morning went along. Especially, after the risk assets got a boost from the Consumer Confidence revival. Yes, Brother Love’s traveling salvation show revival, a.k.a. Consumer Confidence was much stronger than forecast, and the risk assets took off!
By mid-afternoon, the euro was pushing 1.4350, and all the “little dogs” were following along with their own version of…